VC Fund Secondary: Buy the Winning Ticket at Halftime (at Half Price)

Skip the J-curve. Faster Growth, Shorter Liquidity.

Venture capital isn’t for everyone. Most start-ups fail, and most investments return zero. Many VC funds don’t make any distributions in the first 5 years, and most of them take 10-15 years or longer to fully exit. The lack of predictability and a long period of illiquidity makes venture capital a challenging asset class for all but the most patient of investors.

That said, top VC funds can perform far better than the rest of the market, and the best tech companies can turn into unicorns that generate 20X, 50X, or sometimes even 100X returns.

If only there was a way to skip ahead five or more years and invest in just the VC funds that are doing well, wouldn’t that be great?

Skip The J-Curve: Buy VC Funds After They’re Already Winning

What if you could arrive at the game at halftime and bet on the team that was already ahead by 10 points? And what if you could buy that winning ticket at a discount? Imagine your friend called you up from the stadium and said, “Hey, I’ve got an emergency and have to leave the game right now – do you want my seat for half-price? I’ve also got a bet on the team that’s winning, but you have to stay until the end of the game to collect.”

Sound too good to be true? Well, it really does happen. Some fans who come to the game might need to leave early. Some investors in VC funds want liquidity before the fund term is over. Fans who leave at halftime will sell their seats at a discount. Investors who want early liquidity will take a haircut on returns in order to cash out immediately. This is the benefit of buying secondary in a VC fund after the first five years, aka “Skip the J-Curve.”

VC fund secondary combines the fast growth of tech companies with the shorter liquidity profile of private equity.

Why VC Secondary? No “Blind Pool,” Faster Growth, Shorter Liquidity

Beyond upfront discounts of 25-50%, there are other key benefits to investing in VC fund secondary.

Because portfolio companies are already established and growing, buyers have a better sense of what they’re getting for their money – they aren’t investing in a “blind pool” of unknown future assets. After five years or more, successful VC funds should have established winners at Series B or C and perhaps even early exits and distributions. Seeing the first few years of performance in the rear view mirror provides insight into how well the fund manager is doing and how well the fund is likely to perform in the future. Again, it’s kind of like checking the score at halftime to see which team is ahead.

Because funds over 5 years old may already be making distributions, investor capital is returned more quickly, perhaps in just a few years. And because Series B and C winners are scaling up fast (often 50-100% or more annually), their growth rates tend to drive the portfolio. As these companies become unicorns, typically one large outcome will dominate the portfolio and drive a power-law distribution of returns.

Finally, the typical 10-15 year holding period for a traditional VC fund can be cut in half when buying fund secondary. This reduces the long illiquidity period of venture capital substantially, making it more competitive with other alternative asset classes such as private equity, private credit, hedge funds, or real estate.